Vol. 11, Special Issue 5 (2022)

Author(s):
Prity Kumari, DJ Parmar, Sathish Kumar M, AB Mahera and YA Lad

Abstract:
Horticulture is the cardinal sector and contributes more towards economic growth in all over the world especially in developing countries. In India, horticulture is accelerating the economic growth and contributes 30.4 per cent of agricultural GDP. Gujarat gives prominent contribution to the Indian horticulture sector and contributes nearly 14 to 20 per cent share in major fruits and vegetables like sapota, papaya, onion, banana and lime. The state is the largest producer of cumin in the world and also has the highest productivity in custard apple and guava in India. The area, production and productivity of fruit crops in Gujarat from 1887-88 to 2015-16 has selected as variables for this forecasting study. Compound Growth Rate employed to find out the trends in area, production and productivity of total fruit crops which revealed the growth rate of area and production has been increasing and significant rather than productivity. Exponent Smoothing Model used to remove the random fluctuations in time series data and ARMIA model were employed to make the data into time series stationary. This research discovered that exponential smoothing model was found to be the best model for forecasting area and productivity, whereas the ARIMA model best described production.