Vol. 10, Special Issue 4 (2021)

Author(s):
Dr. B Sivasankari, Dr. R Vasanthi and Dr. G Vanitha

Abstract:
The study has been undertaken to fit different trend equations like linear, non-linear and time series models for Tapioca and also made the future forecasts by 2022 AD. The study was carried out in Salem district of Tamil Nadu state as a whole using time series data from 1997-1998 to 2018-2019. For forecasting purpose linear and non-linear growth models viz. linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, power, s-curve, logistic and exponential and time series models like ARIMA models were fitted to the area, production and productivity of Tapioca crop in Salem district of Tamil Nadu. The best fitted model for future projection was chosen based upon least RMSE, MAE and MAPE values. The study revealed that Quadratic model was identified as the best model in Tapioca area and production in Salem district. Cubic model was identified as the best model for Tapioca productivity in Salem district of Tamil Nadu. It was also observed that in Salem district of Tamil Nadu, tapioca showed decreasing trend by 2022 AD in area, production and productivity.