Vol. 10, Special Issue 12 (2021)

Author(s):
Ramesh, KN Krishamurthy, Shilpa M, Maruthi, G Avinash and Channabasava

Abstract:
Cotton is an important principal commercial fiber crop. It is one of the most leading cash crops in Indian economy. In the present study an attempt has been made using secondary data for forty six years (from 1970 to 2016) to understand the growth rates in area, production and productivity of cotton crop in Dharwad district of Karnataka. The results revealed that cotton crop marked a significant increase in growth rate in area (4.37%), production (3.82%) and productivity (3.01%) during the study period. To understand the trends in area, production and productivity of cotton crop, it was observed that among different polynomial models fitted, quadratic model was found to be the best fit for area with an adj R² and RMSE values of 0.780, and 36.354 respectively. For production, cubic model was found to be the best with adj R² and RMSE of 0.685 and 29.909 respectively. Similarly, for productivity, linear model was best fitted with an adj R² of 0.714 and an RMSE of 39.243. Further, forecasting of production of cotton crop was done using ARIMA model. It was found that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model was appropriate for production of cotton crop in Dharwad district.