Vol. 10, Special Issue 11 (2021)

Author(s):
Bhabani Shankar Bishoyi and Chinmayee Patra

Abstract:
Groundnut is an important Oilseed crop in Odisha. Protein content is more in this crop which makes it more important for health. The present study aims the forecasting of Groundnut production in Odisha. Statistics data from 1970-71 to 2020-21 is taken for the present study. For trend estimation, Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used. Auto-Correlation function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation function (PACF) were calculated for analysis purpose. Appropriate Box- Jenkins ARIMA model was fitted according to the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) values. Validation of model was done by using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). ARIMA (0,1,1) model was used for forecasting the subsequent 5years’ production. The result shows 391.54tonnes of groundnut production in the year 2025.