Vol. 12, Issue 2 (2023)

Author(s):
Aishwarya V, Banjul Bhattacharyya, Nevashini N and Gowthaman T

Abstract:
India is currently the world's second-largest producer of fruits and vegetables. Due to higher profitable price factors, horticultural crop demand and export opportunities have been steadily rising. In this context, an attempt has been made to forecast the area and production of Onion and Tomato. Presence of auto correlation in the data, time series forecasting model exponential smoothing were adopted. Holt’s linear model found to be the best model because it has the ability to forecast with lowest RMSE and MAPE values compared the different models fitted for the data except for tomato production. In case of Tomato production, Damped trend model performed better among the selected models with less RMSE (215.30) and MAPE (13.01) values. Forecasted values were obtained using best fitted models.