Vol. 12, Issue 2 (2023)

It is important to understand the probability that the monsoon will start or end during a specific week. It is crucial to understand the risks involved with the crops and whether they are suitable for sowing or planting. In order to choose the sowing date, crop pattern, plan for protective irrigation, and conduct intercultural operations, it is also crucial to be aware of the probability that dry spells will occur during the critical parts of the crops. As a result, the probability distribution analysis was carried out in this study for various parameters influencing the drought, such as the SPI index and the onset and withdrawal of the monsoon, for various stations in the Sangli district. Hence, the present study entitled, “Dry and wet spell probability analysis by Markov chain model for Sangli District (Maharashtra), India”. For this study rainfall data of 10 stations have been procured and used for the period of 1961-2021.