Vol. 11, Issue 1 (2022)

Author(s):
K Sai Krishna, Arup De, Ram Kumar Chaudhary, Mahesh Kumar and B Deepak Reddy

Abstract:
Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries. It has a special place in the Indian economy because of its significance in food security, trade and industry. This study made an attempt to model and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in India by using annual time series data from 1959–2019 based on the ARIMA models. The best fitted model was selected based on the performance of the goodness of fit criteria viz. of Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Bayesian Information Criterion, Akaike Information Criterion. The study found ARIMA (0,1,1) with drift is the best model for consumption and production of wheat. According to the ARIMA prediction, consumption and production are expected to increase during the next eight years i.e., consumption in 2026-27 will be 1,10,960.03 thousand MT and production will be 1,13,909.70 thousand MT.