Vol. 8, Issue 5 (2019)

Author(s):
Jayna Patel, Dr. Viranchi Shah and Dr. Pradeep J Jha

Abstract:
This epitomic work in this paper targets at identifying different methods to forecast (1) demand and (2) sale pattern; both of these are random variables. It is known that there are three important components of P³ systems Viz. (1) Planning, (2) Production, and (3) Procurement; these are inter-related and non-separable constituents of the said system. There is one external factor- Demand, which is a gross of many parameters- some of them are known and some have remained unknown, which forces it to be a random variable. Our effort, using different statistical tools, focuses on forecasting ‘demand’ in some next cycles which in turn, possibly, prove a criterion for production phase and also procurement phase also. The content of this paper, on comparing different criteria of forecasting using ‘U’ test justifies our approach.