Vol. 12, Issue 2 (2023)

Author(s):
Supahi Mahanta, Smrita Barua, Borsha Neog and Anshuman Neog

Abstract:
Assam is well-recognized for its genetic diversity of silk farming or sericulture. The climatic condition and geographical location cause greater production of silk farming over the past years in Assam. Muga is the leading silkworm rearing, accounting for a major portion of the total Sericultural production in Assam as well as in India. In this research paper, an attempt has been made to find a better implementable plan for the farmers and policy makers to increase the production of sericulture in Assam by analyzing over fifty years of data. Assam is one of the main regions, where most of its livelihood depends on agriculture. The purpose of the study is to analyze the trend of production of sericulture (Muga, Eri and Mulberry) and to develop a time series model for forecasting the productions of sericulture. The non-parametric method Mann-Kendall test confirmed the trend pattern of production of sericulture along with Sen’s slope estimate of the rate of change per year of production. The four stages of Box-Jenkins approach were used to create an appropriate ARIMA model, which is used for predicting sericulture production for next ten years (2021-2030).